Category: Daily in Portfolio Management

Analysis of the Global Automotive Industry and Market INTRODUCTION The global automotive industry is undergoing significant transformations driven by technological advancements, shifting consumer preferences, and evolving regulatory landscapes. In 2024, the sector faces both challenges and opportunities as it navigates these changes. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Global vehicle sales are projected to reach approximately 94.7 million units in 2024, marking a 3.3% growth compared to the previous year. This growth is influenced by factors such as interest rates and economic conditions. The transition towards electric vehicles (EVs) continues to accelerate, with manufacturers investing heavily in electrification and digitalisation to meet consumer demand and regulatory requirements. CURRENT STATE OF THE GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY Regional Highlights: China: maintains its position as the world’s largest automotive market, contributing over 30% of global vehicle sales. Europe:…

TRUMP’S RETURN TO PRESIDENCY: impacts on the stock market and economic outlook Donald Trump's return to presidency is a highly debated topic, with the markets reflecting both hope and apprehension. His presidency promises to bring drastic changes in economic policy, with key discussions around tax reforms, deregulation, and trade policy. All these factors are already influencing investor behavior and shaping market trends.After Trump's victory, the stock market had a noticeable rally as investors became relieved with the clarity of the election outcome and the anticipation of market-friendly policies. The S&P 500 reached a record high after the news, while the VIX went down, amidst the exciting expectations of tax cuts and deregulation.The Republican leader has long demonstrated his fascination with cryptocurrencies, and the leading crypto now stands close to the…

ELI LILLY FACES RATING DOWNGRADE DUE TO SALES ISSUES, WHILST MOODY’S STOCK REACHES ITS ALL TIME HIGH Erste Group, one of the main European banking groups based in Austria, recently modified its rating of portfolio holding Eli Lilly (LLY) (0.2 units purchased @582.99). Its recommendation changed from Buy to Hold and the main factors that contributed to this downgrade are two ratios: inventory/sales and receivables/sales. What analysts pointed out is that, despite the positive expectations about Eli Lilly’s earnings trend in the near future, the previously cited ratios increased too much, reaching their highest values in the last 6 years. A high inventory/sales ratio may indicate an overstocking or a worrying decrease in customers’ demand, while a rising value for receivables/sales probably reflects the difficulties faced by Eli Lilly in…

Market Volatility Amid Earnings Season and Policy Shifts: NVIDIA, Oklo, and Eli Lilly in Focus During the last two weeks, the stock market has fluctuated greatly, partly due to the election of the new US president, Donald Trump, and partly because we’re right in the middle of earnings season, when many companies report their earnings and forecasts, leading to changes in stock prices.NVIDIA Our holding, Nvidia (NVDA), has probably been one of the most talked about stocks in recent years due to its amazing returns. As of today, it is also the world’s largest company by market cap. The company reported its Q4 results on Wednesday 20 after the market closed, and despite topping expectations, the stock shares fell, failing to continue to fuel the AI spark. The company reported…

Swiftonomics, a term coined to describe the economic influence of Taylor Swift, encapsulates the intersection of pop culture and economics. As one of the world's most influential artists, Swift's activities generate significant economic ripples, affecting various industries and market behaviors.  Concert Tours and Local Economies Taylor Swift's concert tours are a prime example of Swiftonomics in action. Her tours, such as the "Reputation Stadium Tour" and "The Eras Tour," attract millions of fans worldwide, leading to substantial economic benefits for host cities. When Swift performs in a city, there is a noticeable spike in local spending on hotels, restaurants, transportation, and merchandise, peaking at the "Reputation Stadium Tour", which grossed $345.7 million, and its economic impact on local businesses was estimated to be even higher. Market Power and Pricing Strategies…

The value of Copper, often referred to as "Dr. Copper" for its role as an economic indicator, is experiencing a significant rally in its market value. Prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton for the first time since April 2022, reaching around $10,220 per ton, driven by soaring global demand and tight supplies, rising 29% from year to date. Copper's critical role in the global transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 underscores its increasing importance. As the world accelerates efforts to combat climate change, copper will be central for the development of different green-initiatives and must overcome the different hurdles in its way in order to solidify its status as the most vital metal in the energy transition. Copper's role is expanding beyond traditional sectors like construction and electronics to new,…

Many of the most important power companies have started to either change or review their targets to develop renewable energy because of high costs in development and low costs of electricity. This comes as a sign of the general difficulties that present in transitioning away from fossil fuels. The continent’s largest renewable energy producer, Starkraft, announced the review of their annual targets for new renewables capacity, while EDP, an important Portuguese energy company started cutting back its plans quoting high interest rates and low power prices. On the other hand also Denmark’s Ørsted, recognized as the world’s largest offshore wind developer, downgraded its targets for renewable energy for 2030 by more than 10GW, a measure enough to potentially supply millions of homes. The downgrade of this particular target came as…

May 16th, 2024 - ChatGPT maker OpenAI held its "Spring Update" event on Monday, where it announced a new desktop app, a web UI refresh, and the launch of its most advanced model, GPT-4o. The demo showcased how edge devices, starting with Macs and iPhones, can benefit from AI. By integrating voice, text, and images, the demo also highlighted AI's potential to significantly boost productivity. Much of the demo utilized a "hardwired" Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone to reduce latency in real-time interactions.  In this context, analysts at Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating on AAPL, saying they expect the tech giant “to be a net beneficiary of AI at the edge” with “gross margin upside and momentum in services' '. Among Apple Inc. (AAPL)'s renowned products are smartphones, personal computers, tablets,…

May 8th, 2024 - Today, Shopify (SHOP) (-19.3% at 10:35 AM EDT), a notorious Canadian e-commerce firm  operating in multiple countries, disclosed its expectations about quarterly revenue growth  and the forecasted values are the worst in the last two years. Among the several factors that  led to this poor result are the decreasing consumers’ spending trend in recent times as  well as the fact that the core of Shopify’s clientele represented by small and medium-sized  companies has been heavily hit by the ongoing inflation. The company’s forecast for the  second quarter of 2024 did not meet Shopify’s investors’ expectations at all, considering that  the latter experienced an average revenue growth of 26% in the last quarters (with respect  to this, LSEG data drove analysts to predict a growth rate of…

May 1st, 2024 - In the current year, 2024, market trends have 3 main characteristics: medium growth, high inflation and elevated geopolitical risks. Such factors hinder investment strategies and opportunities across most asset sectors.  Said geopolitical uncertainties influence the equity market, as it can be deduced from growth expectations of 2-3% in the S&P 500. Thus warning investors to exercise extreme caution, specifically when dealing within the markets impacted by these economic hardships. Contrastingly, companies involved in AI show greater promise of growth. In fact, after careful consideration, the following companies have the highest growth potential: MSFT, NVIDIA (its one year return is over 211%- best performing stock for may 2024). Another possible investment would be Crowdstrike holdings inc. (CRWD). The company specialises in cybersecurity and has demonstrated robust performance…